Employee Flight Risk Assessment Matrix

The Matrix: Likelihood Against Exposure

Two questions, answered separately. Likelihood: how probable is it that this person resigns in the next six to twelve months? Exposure: how much would it cost if they did? A single risk score blends the two, and hides the difference between keeping someone and preparing to lose them.

High exposure · low likelihood

Single Point of Failure

They’re probably staying, and you’d be in trouble if they didn’t. The risk here is your own dependency. Write down what only they know and name a backup this quarter.

High exposure · high likelihood

Act This Week

Stay interview within 14 days, with one thing you’re willing to change decided before you walk in. Start the knowledge transfer at the same time, because you may lose what they know either way. A stay interview earns its keep here.

Low exposure · low likelihood

Routine

Nothing here needs a program. Keep the one-on-one, and re-run the sheet if something structural changes around them.

Low exposure · high likelihood

Let the Conversation Decide

Book the stay interview, ask properly, and accept the answer. If they leave anyway the team absorbs it, so this is the box where an honest conversation costs you least.

Cut-offs: likelihood is high at 16 or more out of 32, exposure at 4 or more out of 6. Both are judgment calls, and they’re yours to move once you’ve run the sheet across a team. Don’t add likelihood and exposure into one total. The box sets the action.

How to Score Someone in 10 Minutes

The manager fills this in about one person, and it’s written so you could show it to the person it describes. Score each line 0 (no concern), 1 (unsure) or 2 (concern). The scorer above runs the same 13 lines; this is the version to keep.

EMPLOYEE FLIGHT RISK WORKSHEET (A)  ---  one person, one manager, 10 minutes

Score each line 0, 1 or 2.   0 = no concern   1 = unsure   2 = concern

PART 1. CONDITIONS  (what the job is supplying)          weight x2
  C1  I could not name the two things this person
      most needs from work without guessing.              [ ]
  C2  One or both of those is missing from their
      role, or present below the level they need.         [ ]
  C3  Something changed in the last 90 days that
      reduced one of them (reorg, new manager, scope).    [ ]
  C4  They have raised something in the last 6 months
      that is still unresolved.                           [ ]
  C5  They could not describe a version of their job
      12 months out that they would want.                 [ ]
  C6  Their pay and level would not hold up against
      what they would be offered outside today.           [ ]
                                      Part 1 subtotal  [    ] x2 = [    ]

PART 2. OBSERVATIONS  (what the person is doing)         weight x1
  O1  Discretionary work has narrowed to the role.        [ ]
  O2  They have stepped back from optional commitments.   [ ]
  O3  They have stopped disagreeing.                      [ ]
  O4  Planning conversations stop at a near horizon.      [ ]
                                      Part 2 subtotal  [    ] x1 = [    ]

PART 3. EXPOSURE  (what it would cost to lose them)      weight x1
  E1  No identified successor or backup.                  [ ]
  E2  Holds knowledge that is not written down.           [ ]
  E3  Replacement ramp is longer than one quarter.        [ ]
                                      Part 3 subtotal  [    ] x1 = [    ]

  LIKELIHOOD  = Part 1 + Part 2, out of 32.  High at 16 or more.
  EXPOSURE    = Part 3, out of 6.            High at 4 or more.

  High likelihood, high exposure   Act this week. Stay interview
                                   inside 14 days with one thing
                                   you will change already decided,
                                   and start the handover too.
  High likelihood, low exposure    Book the stay interview, ask
                                   properly, accept the answer.
  Low likelihood, high exposure    They are probably staying, and
                                   you are exposed anyway. Document
                                   and name a backup this quarter.
  Low likelihood, low exposure     Keep the normal one-on-one.

THE ONE QUESTION THAT DOES MOST OF THE WORK
  If C1 scored 2, stop scoring. You do not have enough information
  about this person to assess anything, and that is the finding.

DO NOT SCORE
  Life events, caring responsibilities, medical or protected absence,
  pregnancy, age, visa or immigration status, external profile activity.
  These belong in a conversation. They do not belong in a number.

Plain text on purpose: calendar invites and docs collapse spacing, and the columns are what make it readable.

Part 1 Counts Double

Six questions about conditions outrank four about behavior, because the conditions could be read months before any behavior changed.

If C1 Scores 2, Stop

You don’t know enough about this person to assess anything else, and that’s the finding. Fix it with a conversation before you fill in the rest.

Where This Doesn’t Apply This is a structuring device, and it has never been validated against outcomes. It produces no probability, and the cut-offs are judgment. It assumes a manager who knows the person, a span small enough to fill it in honestly, and a workplace where a stay interview is normal. It breaks on wide spans, on shift and frontline work without scheduled one-on-ones, in unionized settings where an individual retention conversation may cut across agreed process, and in high power-distance cultures where C4 returns a polite zero from everyone. Where it breaks, the questions still work as an agenda. Drop the scoring.

A Worked Example

Priya is a senior analyst, four years in, moved under a new manager in a June reorg. Here’s the sheet her manager filled in, with notes on what each score told him.

Priya · Senior Analyst4 years in · reorganized under a new manager in June · illustrative example

Part 1 · Conditions (×2)

C1Could not name her two needs without guessing

He half knows what she needs, and isn’t sure. Close enough to keep scoring.

C3Something in the last 90 days reduced one

C3 and C4 point at the same thing: something changed in June, and what she raised about it is still open. That’s the conversation.

C4Raised something in 6 months, still unresolved

Her other lines: C2 2, C5 1, C6 1, then O1 1, O2 2, O3 2, O4 1

Likelihood: conditions 9 × 2, plus observations 6

24 of 32. High likelihood.

Part 3 · Exposure

Exposure: E1 2, E2 2, E3 1

5 of 6. High exposure. She lands in Act This Week.

The total placed her, and the lines told her manager what to talk about. Load her scores into the scorer at the top to see the dot land.

Why Exposure Gets Its Own Axis

Most flight risk tools ask who might leave. The matrix also asks who you can least afford to lose, and that second list is usually the one nobody has written down.

Retention workHigh likelihood. Find out what’s missing and change one thing.

Succession workHigh exposure. Write it down and name a backup, whether they stay or go.

Bridge inspectors keep a separate list for what used to be called fracture-critical members: steel parts with no backup load path, where one crack can bring down a span. Those parts get inspected up close and on their own schedule, however sound they look, because what matters is what happens to the bridge if they go. Most teams have one of these. It’s usually the analyst who knows how the month-end reconciliation actually works.

Matrix vs. Employee Flight Risk Model

An employee flight risk model is a prediction, usually built from HR records: tenure, time since last promotion, pay against market and the last engagement score. It’s useful for spotting which groups have historically left, and weak at telling you which person in that group is at risk, or why.

The matrix starts from the manager’s read of what the job is giving this person, then uses exposure to choose the action. Use a model to pick which teams to look at, and the matrix to pick which conversation to have.

	Flight risk model	Assessment matrix
Built from	HR records on job history	The manager’s read on one person
Gives you	A ranked list of names	One of four actions
Best for	Planning, and spotting trends across groups	This week’s conversation
Misses	Why someone is at risk	People the manager doesn’t know well. C1 flags them instead of scoring them.

For the full picture of which signals arrive early and which arrive late, see our guide to employee flight risk.

Rules That Keep It From Becoming a Watch List

A flight risk score about a named person is sensitive. If HR rolls the scores up across teams, apply these before anything leaves the sheet.

Never report a team smaller than 4. Below that, a percentage identifies an individual.
Keep individual scores private. Don’t show them anywhere the person could be identified, including to their skip-level.
Expire scores after one quarter. A stale score becomes a label, and labels change how people are treated.
Report the C1 rate first. Tell leadership how often managers couldn’t name what their people need, before any risk score.
Delete scores nobody acted on. If a high-likelihood read led to no booked conversation within 30 days, delete it.

Worksheet B: the full HR roll-up, as plain text

EMPLOYEE FLIGHT RISK ROLL-UP (B)  ---  per team, per quarter

  Team                                          ______________
  Headcount in scope (minimum 4)                ______________
  Worksheets returned                           ______________
  Share of worksheets where C1 scored 2         ______________  %
  Share with likelihood 16+                     ______________  %
  Stay interviews booked in the last 30 days    ______________
  Of those, how many produced a change          ______________

SUPPRESSION RULES  (apply before anything leaves this sheet)
  1. Do not report a team of fewer than 4. Below that, a percentage
     names an individual.
  2. Do not publish individual scores anywhere the person could be
     identified, including to their skip-level.
  3. Do not carry a score forward more than one quarter. A stale
     flight risk score is a label, and labels change how people
     are treated.
  4. Report the C1 rate first, and to leadership, before any risk
     score. A high C1 rate means your managers lack a
     basic read on their own people, which is its own finding.
  5. If a likelihood 16+ read produced no booked conversation within
     30 days, delete the score. An assessment nobody acts on is
     a record you are keeping about someone for no reason.

THE NUMBER TO TRACK QUARTER ON QUARTER
  The share of at-risk reads that produced a conversation, and
  the share of those conversations that produced a change the
  person could point to.

Plain text, with the column alignment kept.

Where Attuned fits

Answer C1 Without Guessing

The hardest line on the sheet is the first one: naming the two things this person most needs from work. Attuned answers it with a 10-minute assessment that scores 11 intrinsic motivators for each person. A short team pulse then shows which of those needs are going unmet, reported at team level with a floor of three respondents.

The worksheet works well for one manager and a handful of people. Past that, scores go stale between quarters and nobody can see across teams. That’s when teams add employee retention software that predicts turnover, so each person’s motivator profile is on file and the conversation happens while there’s still time.

See how the motivator assessment works

Motivator profile · top fivescored 0 to 100

Progress88

Autonomy81

Feedback64

Social Rel.47

Security33

C1, answeredProgress and Autonomy. If June’s reorg took away her decision rights, that’s where to start.

Illustrative profile

Flight Risk Matrix Questions

What is an employee flight risk assessment matrix?

It’s a 2x2 grid that places each employee by how likely they are to leave and how costly losing them would be. Each box calls for a different action, from a routine one-on-one to a stay interview this week.

How do you calculate employee flight risk?

Score what the job is supplying the person, then what the person is doing, then what it would cost to lose them. The first two add up to likelihood, out of 32, with conditions counting double. The third is exposure, out of 6. Plot both, and let the box decide the action.

What is an employee flight risk model?

A flight risk model predicts who might leave, usually from HR records such as tenure, pay and time since promotion. It’s good for spotting which groups have historically left, and weaker at explaining why one particular person is at risk.

How often should you run a flight risk assessment?

Once a quarter, and again whenever something structural changes around a person, such as a reorg, a new manager or a change in scope. Don’t carry a score forward more than one quarter.

Is it legal to score employees for flight risk?

Keep scores to work conditions and observed work behavior. Never score protected characteristics, health, family situations or absences. Employment and privacy rules differ by country and state, so check yours before rolling a flight risk assessment out across an organization.